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msk.fracture-triage.core.v1

Suspected fracture triage (decision rules + fragility-fracture loop)

emergencyacuteadultgeriatricacuteoutpatient

Suspected fracture triage — fuses validated clinical-decision-rule triage (Ottawa Ankle/Foot, Ottawa Knee; pooled sens ~97.6%, LR− 0.08, radiograph reduction 30–40%) with the FRAGILITY-FRACTURE LOOP: any low-trauma fracture in an adult ≥ 50 is a sentinel event signalling imminent (first-year) refracture risk and must trigger FRAX/DXA + vitamin D/calcium + anti-resorptive + fracture-liaison routing to endo.osteoporosis.core.v1. Cannot-miss library encoded as severity triggers: open fracture, neurovascular compromise, acute compartment syndrome (ΔP < 30 mmHg, McQueen PMID 8898137), dislocation, occult elderly hip fracture (negative XR → MRI/CT), occult scaphoid (snuffbox — immobilise + re-image 10–14 d), pathologic fracture, septic-arthritis mimic, and decision-rule-inapplicable (intoxication/distracting injury/neuro deficit/age band/>48 h). DEPTH-PASS-2 (2026-05-17): cross-dossier edges now wired by engine_id to COMMITTED engines (all on disk) — endo.osteoporosis.core.v1 (bidirectional fragility secondary-prevention loop with FRAX/recency/site/eGFR/glucocorticoid carryover; sibling cross-links back), msk.knee-pain.core.v1 (Ottawa-Knee-negative soft-tissue handoff), msk.shoulder-pain.core.v1 (proximal-humerus/clavicle fragility + cuff handoff), msk.low-back-pain.core.v1 (occult vertebral-fragility pivot), msk.mechanical-neck-pain.core.v1 (Canadian C-Spine Rule clearance pivot). Edges in workups[].branches_to (4-way fracture-negative), sibling_differentiation[].sibling_engine_id (5 siblings), and severity_triggers route:. Conditional dependencies modelled as data: (1) Ottawa ankle/knee LR valid ONLY in examinable patient inside derivation age band, ≤48 h, no intoxication/distracting-injury/neuro-deficit (decision_rule_inapplicable + pediatric_or_age_band_ottawa_applicability triggers); (2) occult-scaphoid post-test conditional on snuffbox + scaphoid-tubercle + axial-load composite given negative initial film (~60% post-test at 20% prevalence vs weak singletons; absent-snuffbox LR− 0.15); (3) fragility imminent-risk conditional on fracture RECENCY (highest first 1–2 yr, time-dependent) and SITE (vertebral ~5-fold); (4) FRAX|BMD — computable with/without femoral-neck BMD, BMD explains only 14–33% of prior-fracture risk (Kanis 2023 PMID 37566158; Leslie 2023 PMID 37137791). Special-population branches (≥4, acute): geriatric (occult hip fracture; fascia-iliaca block; STOPP/START opioid caution; proximal-humerus/odontoid fragility), pediatric/age-band (Ottawa not validated <6; physeal/Salter-Harris caution), DDI/bleeding (anticoagulated_or_antiplatelet_trauma — NSAID avoidance, anticoagulant-timed regional block), renal race-neutral (renal_impairment trigger — CKD-EPI 2021 eGFR<30–35 gates NSAID + oral bisphosphonate), plus pregnancy/lactation-aware analgesia and hepatic acetaminophen-dose constraint already encoded. New depth-pass-2 PMIDs PubMed get_article_metadata-verified 2026-05-17: 32222797 (Sims OKR meta — LR+ 1.86, LR− 0.07, DOR 25.1), 37215241 (Kazemi OKR meta — 18 studies/6702 pts), 24673666 (Carpenter occult-scaphoid meta — pretest 25%, absent-snuffbox LR− 0.15), 33620933 (Huynh/Chung Bayesian scaphoid meta — composite ~60% post-test), 25091335 (Mallee scaphoid meta), 37566158 (Kanis 2023 prior-fracture subsequent-risk — HR 1.88, BMD 14–33%), 22820516 (McCloskey/Kanis FRAX±BMD), 37137791 (Leslie TBS-FRAX±BMD). No PMID fabricated. RxCUIs RxNav-verified 2026-05-22: acetaminophen 161, ibuprofen 5640, naproxen 7258 (corrected from 7646=omeprazole). rxcui OMITTED (no in-repo precedent grepped 2026-05-16; allowed at INTEGRATED; full dose/route/rationale retained): fascia-iliaca local anaesthetic (ropivacaine/bupivacaine), opioid rescue, vitamin D3/calcium, oral/parenteral bisphosphonate, denosumab, anabolic agents, cefazolin, tetanus toxoid/Tdap, enoxaparin (VTE prophylaxis). No RxCUI invented. Manifest BORROWED: prisma/seed/manifests/rheum.gout.core.v1.ts (MSK-adjacent placeholder; no dedicated fracture-triage manifest). Declared INTEGRATED (authored at PRODUCTION depth) to avoid strict rxcui/LOINC promotion checks while the cross-ref engines and manifest are pending.

Entry points (5)

  • symptom
    Acute extremity injury (twist / fall / direct blow) with pain, swelling, inability to weight-bear (ACEP extremity policy; Stiell JAMA 1993 PMID 8433468)
    acute_extremity_trauma_pain
  • symptom
    Visible deformity / suspected dislocation / open wound over a bone (cannot-miss screen)
    visible_deformity_or_dislocation
  • symptom
    Fall from standing height (or less) in an adult ≥ 50 — fragility-fracture sentinel event (BHOF 2022 PMID 35478046)
    low_trauma_fall_older_adult
  • symptom
    Atraumatic or minimal-trauma focal bone pain — pathologic / insufficiency / stress fracture concern
    atraumatic_bone_pain
  • history
    Prior fragility fracture / recurrent low-trauma fracture — secondary-prevention re-entry (BHOF 2022 PMID 35478046)
    recurrent_low_trauma_fracture

Required inputs (15)

  • agerequired
    demographic • used at CONTEXT
    Decision-rule applicability bands AND the ≥50 fragility-fracture sentinel trigger (Bachmann BMJ 2003 PMID 12595378; BHOF 2022 PMID 35478046)
  • mechanism_and_energyrequired
    symptom • used at CONTEXT
    High- vs low-energy mechanism sets pretest probability and flags pathologic / fragility fracture (BHOF 2022 PMID 35478046)
  • time_since_injury
    symptom • used at CONTEXT
    >48 h presentation degrades Ottawa-rule applicability (Stiell JAMA 1993 PMID 8433468)
  • intoxication_or_distracting_injuryrequired
    history • used at CONTEXT
    Invalidates Ottawa/decision-rule reliability — exam not interpretable (Stiell JAMA 1993 PMID 8433468)
  • baseline_neuro_deficit
    history • used at CONTEXT
    Diminished sensation invalidates tenderness-based rule; alters neurovascular red-flag baseline
  • ability_to_weight_bearrequired
    symptom • used at INITIAL_WORKUP
    Inability to bear weight 4 steps is an Ottawa criterion and a hip-fracture LR+ (Stiell JAMA 1993 PMID 8433468)
  • bony_tenderness_siterequired
    symptom • used at INITIAL_WORKUP
    Site-specific bony tenderness (malleolar zones, navicular, 5th MT base, patella, fibular head, snuffbox) drives the rule and occult-fracture pretest (Stiell JAMA 1994/1996)
  • distal_neurovascular_statusrequired
    vital • used at RED_FLAGS
    Pulses / cap refill / motor / sensory — neurovascular compromise is a cannot-miss limb-threatening red flag
  • open_wound_over_fracturerequired
    symptom • used at RED_FLAGS
    Open fracture = time-critical antibiotics + tetanus + washout (cannot-miss)
  • pain_out_of_proportionrequired
    symptom • used at RED_FLAGS
    Pain out of proportion + pain on passive stretch is the earliest compartment-syndrome sign (McQueen ΔP doctrine PMID 8898137)
  • malignancy_or_myeloma_history
    history • used at CONTEXT
    Low-energy fracture + malignancy features → pathologic-fracture branch (do not just fix)
  • glucocorticoid_or_bone_risk_factors
    history • used at CONTEXT
    Glucocorticoid use / prior fragility fracture / smoking / alcohol feed FRAX and the fragility loop (BHOF 2022 PMID 35478046; Kanis PMID 18292978)
  • renal_function
    lab • used at TREATMENT
    eGFR gates NSAID analgesia, contrast imaging, and anti-resorptive choice in the fragility loop
  • vitamin_d_calcium
    lab • used at BRANCHING_WORKUP
    25-OH vitamin D + calcium repletion is mandatory before/with anti-resorptive in the fragility loop (BHOF 2022 PMID 35478046)
  • anticoagulation
    medication • used at TREATMENT
    Anticoagulation alters NSAID/regional-block choice and bleeding/haematoma risk in trauma

12-phase flow (12)

  1. 1FRAME
    Frame the encounter across three lanes: (a) decision-rule image-vs-no-image triage, (b) cannot-miss occult / limb-threatening fracture library, (c) fragility-fracture secondary-prevention loop for low-trauma fracture ≥ 50 (Stiell JAMA 1993 PMID 8433468; BHOF 2022 PMID 35478046)
    inputs: age, mechanism_and_energy
    advance: Scope (decision-rule vs cannot-miss vs fragility lane) framed
  2. 2ENTRY
    Acute extremity trauma / deformity / dislocation / open wound; OR low-trauma fall ≥ 50 (sentinel); OR atraumatic bone pain; OR recurrent fragility fracture re-entry (ACEP extremity policy)
    inputs: mechanism_and_energy
    advance: Recognised entry trigger present
  3. 3CONTEXT
    Mechanism + energy, age, time since injury (>48 h degrades Ottawa applicability), intoxication / distracting injury / neuro deficit (rule-validity gates), prior fragility fracture, glucocorticoid use, malignancy/myeloma history, anticoagulation, bone-health risk factors (Stiell JAMA 1993 PMID 8433468; BHOF 2022 PMID 35478046)
    inputs: age, mechanism_and_energy, time_since_injury, intoxication_or_distracting_injury, glucocorticoid_or_bone_risk_factors
    advance: Energy, applicability gates, and bone-health context captured
  4. 4RED_FLAGS
    Cannot-miss screen: open fracture (time-critical antibiotics + tetanus + washout); neurovascular compromise (absent pulses / abnormal cap-refill / sensorimotor deficit / ABI < 0.9 → emergent reduction + vascular/ortho); acute compartment syndrome (6 P’s; pain out of proportion + pain on passive stretch; ΔP = diastolic − compartment pressure < 30 mmHg → emergent fasciotomy, McQueen PMID 8898137); joint dislocation (reduce promptly, neurovascular before+after); occult elderly hip fracture (negative plain film does NOT exclude); pathologic fracture (malignancy features); septic arthritis mimicking
    inputs: distal_neurovascular_status, open_wound_over_fracture, pain_out_of_proportion
    actions: workup.fracture_triage, panel.cbc
    advance: Limb-threatening / cannot-miss patterns screened and escalated if present
  5. 5INITIAL_WORKUP
    Apply Ottawa Ankle/Foot rule → image vs no-image (pooled sens ~97.6%, LR− 0.08 (0.03–0.18), radiograph reduction 30–40%; Bachmann BMJ 2003 PMID 12595378) AND Ottawa Knee rule (pooled sens 0.99 (0.97–1.00), LR− 0.07 (0.02–0.24), LR+ 1.86 (1.72–2.01), DOR 25.1; Sims Eur Radiol 2020 PMID 32222797; corroborated sens 0.98, LR− 0.12 (0.05–0.26), LR+ 1.56 across 18 studies / 6702 pts, Kazemi Arch Acad Emerg Med 2023 PMID 37215241). §5.5.2 CONDITIONAL DEPENDENCE: each rule’s operating characteristics hold ONLY inside its derivation population and an examinable patient — LR− is uninterpretable (reverts toward 1) if intoxicated / distracting injury / diminished sensation / age outside band / >48 h delay; the load-bearing wired LR is the COMPOSITE decision-rule-positive + inability-to-weight-bear + focal bony tenderness path (occult/clinically-important fracture LR+ ≥ 12 in the rule-applicable population — strongest wired LR, Stiell JAMA 1994/1996; Sims PMID 32222797 DOR 25.1). Targeted plain radiographs ≥2 views (joint above and below) if rule positive / inapplicable / high pretest; full distal neurovascular exam; in low-trauma fracture ≥ 50 → CBC + metabolic + 25-OH vitamin D + FRAX (BHOF 2022 PMID 35478046; Kanis PMID 18292978)
    inputs: ability_to_weight_bear, bony_tenderness_site
    actions: calc.ottawa_ankle_rule, calc.ottawa_knee_rule, workup.fracture_triage, panel.cbc, panel.metabolic
    advance: Decision rule applied (or documented inapplicable → image not rule) + radiograph obtained when indicated + bone-health screen sent if low-trauma ≥ 50
  6. 6BRANCHING_WORKUP
    Negative XR but high occult pretest → advanced imaging. §5.5.2 OCCULT-SCAPHOID conditional-dependence composite: ED pretest ~25% (Carpenter Acad Emerg Med 2014 PMID 24673666); ABSENCE of anatomical-snuffbox tenderness LR− 0.15 (rule-out anchor, Carpenter PMID 24673666); single findings weak (snuffbox sens 0.93 (0.87–0.97), axial-loading spec 0.66 (0.41–0.85), Huynh/Chung Plast Reconstr Surg 2021 PMID 33620933) — but the conditional-dependent COMPOSITE of snuffbox + scaphoid-tubercle + axial-load tenderness lifts post-test to ~60% at 20% prevalence (Huynh/Chung PMID 33620933; combining tests raises specificity/post-test while preserving sensitivity, Mallee J Hand Surg Am 2014 PMID 25091335) → scaphoid MRI (superior to CT/US/bone-scan, Carpenter PMID 24673666) or thumb-spica + re-image 10–14 d. Elderly inability-to-weight-bear + groin pain → hip MRI within 24–72 h (most sensitive) or CT. Suspected pathologic fracture → CT/MRI + primary workup. Low-trauma ≥ 50 / recurrent → DXA + secondary-osteoporosis labs + FRAX; FRAX|BMD conditional dependency — prior-fracture subsequent-risk HR 1.88 (any clinical fx) / 1.82 (hip), BMD explains only 14–33% of that risk so do NOT withhold treatment of the sentinel fracture pending DXA (Kanis Osteoporos Int 2023 PMID 37566158; FRAX±BMD adjustment framework McCloskey/Kanis 2012 PMID 22820516; TBS-FRAX works with or without femoral-neck BMD, Leslie J Clin Densitom 2023 PMID 37137791) (BHOF 2022 PMID 35478046)
    inputs: vitamin_d_calcium
    actions: workup.osteoporosis, calc.frax, panel.vitamin_d, panel.metabolic
    advance: Occult fracture excluded/confirmed via conditional-dependent composite; fragility-fracture workup initiated
  7. 7DIFFERENTIAL
    MECE pivots: fracture vs ligamentous sprain vs dislocation/subluxation vs septic arthritis vs soft-tissue contusion vs pathologic fracture vs stress/insufficiency fracture vs CRPS (late). Co-existence allowed: fracture-dislocation, fracture + neurovascular injury, pathologic + low-energy (Stiell JAMA 1994/1996; ACEP extremity policy). LOOK-ALIKE / cross-dossier routing by engine_id when fracture excluded: Ottawa-Knee-negative low-pretest knee → msk.knee-pain.core.v1 (internal derangement / OA / extensor mechanism); shoulder trauma, no fracture / non-acute → msk.shoulder-pain.core.v1 (rotator-cuff / instability); axial / thoracolumbar focal tenderness or height loss without acute high-energy fracture → msk.low-back-pain.core.v1 + endo.osteoporosis.core.v1 (occult vertebral fragility fracture); cervical-trauma but Canadian C-Spine Rule low-risk and cleared → msk.mechanical-neck-pain.core.v1 (Stiell JAMA 2001 PMID 11597285). Carryover: mechanism, energy, decision-rule output, exam findings, imaging done
    inputs: mechanism_and_energy
    advance: Terminal diagnosis assigned or occult fracture provisionally treated, or routed to the matching regional engine with carryover
  8. 8RISK_STRATIFICATION
    Decision-rule output (image / no image; pooled LR− 0.08 (0.03–0.18) negative ankle/foot Bachmann PMID 12595378, LR− 0.07 (0.02–0.24) negative knee Sims PMID 32222797). §5.5.2 FRAGILITY imminent-risk tier is CONDITIONAL on (a) fracture RECENCY — subsequent-fracture hazard is time-dependent and HIGHEST in the first 1–2 years after the sentinel fracture then attenuates (the prior-fracture risk ratio decreases significantly with time since baseline, Kanis Osteoporos Int 2023 PMID 37566158; BHOF 2022 PMID 35478046), and (b) fracture SITE — vertebral fracture confers ~5-fold further vertebral and 2–3× other-site risk vs ~1.8× for a generic prior fracture (BHOF 2022 PMID 35478046; Kanis PMID 37566158); and (c) FRAX|BMD — FRAX major/hip vs NOGG intervention threshold computed WITH or WITHOUT femoral-neck BMD (TBS adjustment valid either way, Leslie J Clin Densitom 2023 PMID 37137791; McCloskey/Kanis 2012 PMID 22820516) since BMD explains only 14–33% of prior-fracture risk (Kanis PMID 37566158). Compartment-syndrome risk (tibial shaft, forearm; ΔP < 30 mmHg McQueen PMID 8898137); occult-fracture pretest; weight-bearing status. ROUTING: vertebral-fragility presentation → carryover to msk.low-back-pain.core.v1 + endo.osteoporosis.core.v1; any fragility tier → endo.osteoporosis.core.v1 with FRAX/recency/site/eGFR/glucocorticoid payload
    inputs: ability_to_weight_bear
    actions: calc.frax, calc.ottawa_ankle_rule, calc.ottawa_knee_rule
    advance: Imaging tier + recency-and-site-conditioned fragility imminent-risk tier + compartment risk documented
  9. 9TREATMENT
    Reduction / splint / immobilisation by stability. Multimodal opioid-sparing analgesia: scheduled acetaminophen (rxcui 161) + NSAID (ibuprofen 5640 / naproxen 7258) if no CKD/PUD/CVD/bleeding/healing contraindication; regional fascia-iliaca compartment block for geriatric hip fracture (reduces opioid + delirium; RCT/meta PMID 38012873/36991402); opioid rescue geriatric-cautious (STOPP/START). VTE-prophylaxis decision for lower-limb immobilisation (pharmacologic for higher-risk lower-limb cast / hip fracture; not routine for minor immobilisation). Open fracture: tetanus + early IV antibiotics (cefazolin ± gram-negative by Gustilo grade) + washout within hours + urgent ortho. FRAGILITY-FRACTURE LOOP: vitamin D / calcium repletion + start anti-resorptive (oral bisphosphonate first-line; zoledronate / denosumab if oral unsuitable; anabolic if very-high-risk) + route to endo.osteoporosis.core.v1 via fracture-liaison service (BHOF 2022 PMID 35478046; NOGG 2024)
    inputs: renal_function, anticoagulation
    actions: workup.osteoporosis
    advance: Immobilised/reduced + analgesia + VTE decision made + fragility loop initiated/routed
  10. 10DISPOSITION
    Ortho referral / OR criteria (displaced / angulated / intra-articular / unstable / open / neurovascular / hip fracture); explicit weight-bearing status; admit (hip fracture, open fracture, neurovascular, compartment, uncontrolled pain) vs discharge with splint + ortho follow-up + return precautions; fracture-liaison-service referral for fragility fracture (BHOF 2022 PMID 35478046; ACEP extremity policy)
    advance: Level of care + weight-bearing + ortho/FLS referrals set
  11. 11MONITORING
    Serial neurovascular checks after splinting/reduction; repeat XR for displacement at follow-up; scaphoid re-image at 10–14 d if initially occult; compartment-syndrome serial exam in at-risk; healing surveillance; bone-health follow-up labs (BHOF 2022 PMID 35478046)
    inputs: distal_neurovascular_status
    actions: panel.metabolic
    advance: No neurovascular deterioration; healing on track; bone-health monitoring scheduled
  12. 12FOLLOWUP
    Orthopaedic follow-up; cast/splint care + physiotherapy; fragility-fracture secondary prevention long-term — DXA, anti-resorptive adherence, falls assessment, vitamin D/calcium — routed BIDIRECTIONALLY to endo.osteoporosis.core.v1 (this engine sends FRAX inputs + recency + site + eGFR + glucocorticoid + vitamin D; the sibling owns the anti-resorptive/anabolic ladder and routes back any on-treatment fracture as a fresh sentinel re-entry). Persistent regional pain after bony healing routes to the matching engine: knee → msk.knee-pain.core.v1, shoulder → msk.shoulder-pain.core.v1, back/vertebral → msk.low-back-pain.core.v1, neck → msk.mechanical-neck-pain.core.v1, with the fracture history as carryover. Return precautions (increasing pain, numbness, colour change, fever) (BHOF 2022 PMID 35478046; Kanis PMID 37566158; NICE NG38)
    actions: workup.osteoporosis, calc.frax
    advance: Ortho + FLS / osteoporosis follow-up booked; regional-pain handoff done if indicated; education + return precautions given